Chicago's Fiscal
Health: Decoded
A city that can't pay its bills can't invest in its future. Strong Towns calls this the solvency principle. The charts below show how Chicago has struggled to stay solvent, making commitments for decades while leaving the next generation to pay for them.
Data: 2003–2025 via Chicago Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports · City government only
The Finance Decoder & #DoTheMath
Strong Towns Chicago's #DoTheMath initiative uses the Finance Decoder to chart 20+ years of city financial data. We're not prescribing specific fixes here. The goal is to give everyday Chicagoans the context to ask sharper questions of their elected officials. Every budget, project, and policy should be able to answer these three:
When a city's finances are clear, leaders can plan ahead: investing in transit, housing, and parks on a predictable schedule. Transparent local accounting makes that possible. Without it, you get what Chicago has now: repeated credit downgrades, budget gaps closed with borrowing, and surprise tax hikes.
How did we get here?
Strong Towns founder Charles Marohn argues that cities go broke for one core reason: they build things that cost more to maintain than they'll ever produce in revenue. Chicago is no exception. Here's how the pattern plays out, and what Strong Towns says the alternative looks like:
The Strong Towns approach is simple in principle, even if politically difficult: maintain what you have, grow gradually, and invest in things that pay for themselves.
The Numbers at a Glance
Four numbers every Chicago resident should know, pulled directly from the city's 2025 Annual Comprehensive Financial Report (ACFR), released in June 2026. They cover the city government only, which is about a fifth of your property tax bill.
What’s counted, and what isn’t
The City of Chicago is roughly a fifth of your property tax bill. The Chicago Board of Education alone is more than half.
Counted: police, fire, streets, water, sewer, the airports, the Public Library and the Sales Tax Securitization Corporation.
Not counted: CPS, the CTA, the Park District, the Housing Authority, City Colleges and the Public Building Commission, which the ACFR treats as separate governments the city only appoints boards to. Nor Cook County, the Forest Preserve District or the MWRD.
Those governments carry their own debts and pension gaps, and they fall on the same households. Every figure here understates what a Chicago resident collectively owes.
What changed in the FY2025 numbers
- The hole grew $1.6 billion deeper, to −$65.3 billion, despite a $219 million operating surplus. Liabilities outran it.
- Pensions are 28% funded, up from 25% on investment returns. The dollar gap still grew, to $36.4 billion.
- Interest fell to 3.4 cents per revenue dollar, a 22-year low. The 2017 sales tax securitization drove that, refinancing at AAA rates and stretching some maturities to 2048.
- State and federal grants fell to 7% of revenue, also a 22-year low, as pandemic programs ended.
- Infrastructure value left on the books slipped to 60% from 61%, after $1.6 billion of capital spending.
The charts below break it down, grouped by those three questions. Click each section to explore, or .
Sustainability
Can Chicago keep this up long-term?
The Bottom Line: How Deep in the Hole Is Chicago? [Net Financial Position]
Cash and financial assets (excluding roads, buildings, etc.) minus total liabilities
All four run through FY2025 (Chicago's ends in December, the others in June). New York also runs its schools and welfare, so its numbers cover much more than the other three.
| Year | Net financial position | Per resident |
|---|---|---|
| 2003 | −$9.44 billion | −$3,291 per resident |
| 2004 | −$10.53 billion | −$3,709 per resident |
| 2005 | −$11.39 billion | −$4,054 per resident |
| 2006 | −$13.01 billion | −$4,685 per resident |
| 2007 | −$14.76 billion | −$5,374 per resident |
| 2008 | −$16.59 billion | −$6,098 per resident |
| 2009 | −$18.68 billion | −$6,909 per resident |
| 2010 | −$20.49 billion | −$7,601 per resident |
| 2011 | −$22.48 billion | −$8,301 per resident |
| 2012 | −$25.44 billion | −$9,356 per resident |
| 2013 | −$27.12 billion | −$9,950 per resident |
| 2014 | −$29.24 billion | −$10,732 per resident |
| 2015 | −$55.84 billion | −$20,548 per resident |
| 2016 | −$58.46 billion | −$21,612 per resident |
| 2017 | −$58.84 billion | −$21,814 per resident |
| 2018 | −$59.67 billion | −$22,211 per resident |
| 2019 | −$59.53 billion | −$22,232 per resident |
| 2020 | −$60.54 billion | −$22,043 per resident |
| 2021 | −$59.72 billion | −$22,147 per resident |
| 2022 | −$62.01 billion | −$23,268 per resident |
| 2023 | −$62.96 billion | −$23,630 per resident |
| 2024 | −$63.69 billion | −$23,498 per resident |
| 2025 | −$65.28 billion | −$23,898 per resident |
What this means for you
How deep is the debt? Three more ways to measure it 3 charts
How Many Years Would It Take to Pay Off the Debt? [Net Debt-to-Total Revenues]
All four run through FY2025 (Chicago's ends in December, the others in June). New York also runs its schools and welfare, so its numbers cover much more than the other three.
| Year | Net debt to revenue |
|---|---|
| 2003 | 1.64× annual revenue |
| 2004 | 1.79× annual revenue |
| 2005 | 1.83× annual revenue |
| 2006 | 1.95× annual revenue |
| 2007 | 2.11× annual revenue |
| 2008 | 2.35× annual revenue |
| 2009 | 2.79× annual revenue |
| 2010 | 2.91× annual revenue |
| 2011 | 2.98× annual revenue |
| 2012 | 3.35× annual revenue |
| 2013 | 3.47× annual revenue |
| 2014 | 3.59× annual revenue |
| 2015 | 6.24× annual revenue |
| 2016 | 6.21× annual revenue |
| 2017 | 6.09× annual revenue |
| 2018 | 5.77× annual revenue |
| 2019 | 5.29× annual revenue |
| 2020 | 5.40× annual revenue |
| 2021 | 4.63× annual revenue |
| 2022 | 4.83× annual revenue |
| 2023 | 4.19× annual revenue |
| 2024 | 4.37× annual revenue |
| 2025 | 4.36× annual revenue |
Read the fine print
Could the City Cover Its Bills Tomorrow? [Financial Assets-to-Total Liabilities]
All four run through FY2025 (Chicago's ends in December, the others in June). New York also runs its schools and welfare, so its numbers cover much more than the other three.
| Year | Financial assets to liabilities |
|---|---|
| 2003 | 0.448 |
| 2004 | 0.413 |
| 2005 | 0.464 |
| 2006 | 0.412 |
| 2007 | 0.377 |
| 2008 | 0.337 |
| 2009 | 0.322 |
| 2010 | 0.329 |
| 2011 | 0.321 |
| 2012 | 0.279 |
| 2013 | 0.260 |
| 2014 | 0.255 |
| 2015 | 0.153 |
| 2016 | 0.149 |
| 2017 | 0.178 |
| 2018 | 0.192 |
| 2019 | 0.194 |
| 2020 | 0.192 |
| 2021 | 0.201 |
| 2022 | 0.219 |
| 2023 | 0.234 |
| 2024 | 0.224 |
| 2025 | 0.225 |
So what?
The chart above excludes physical assets like roads and buildings. What happens when we add them back in?
If Chicago Sold Everything, Could It Pay What It Owes? [Assets-to-Liabilities]
All four run through FY2025 (Chicago's ends in December, the others in June). New York also runs its schools and welfare, so its numbers cover much more than the other three.
| Year | Assets to liabilities |
|---|---|
| 2003 | 1.207 |
| 2004 | 1.175 |
| 2005 | 1.128 |
| 2006 | 1.106 |
| 2007 | 1.068 |
| 2008 | 1.033 |
| 2009 | 0.990 |
| 2010 | 0.949 |
| 2011 | 0.921 |
| 2012 | 0.879 |
| 2013 | 0.853 |
| 2014 | 0.833 |
| 2015 | 0.639 |
| 2016 | 0.601 |
| 2017 | 0.604 |
| 2018 | 0.602 |
| 2019 | 0.601 |
| 2020 | 0.621 |
| 2021 | 0.637 |
| 2022 | 0.652 |
| 2023 | 0.657 |
| 2024 | 0.644 |
| 2025 | 0.638 |
What this tells you
Flexibility
How much room does Chicago have to adapt?
How Fast Is Chicago's Infrastructure Wearing Out? [Net Book Value-to-Cost of Tangible Capital Assets]
All four run through FY2025 (Chicago's ends in December, the others in June). New York also runs its schools and welfare, so its numbers cover much more than the other three.
| Year | Infrastructure value remaining |
|---|---|
| 2003 | 73.07% |
| 2004 | 72.14% |
| 2005 | 70.84% |
| 2006 | 70.76% |
| 2007 | 70.34% |
| 2008 | 69.94% |
| 2009 | 69.22% |
| 2010 | 68.11% |
| 2011 | 67.59% |
| 2012 | 67.22% |
| 2013 | 66.67% |
| 2014 | 66.14% |
| 2015 | 65.74% |
| 2016 | 65.21% |
| 2017 | 64.90% |
| 2018 | 64.56% |
| 2019 | 64.14% |
| 2020 | 63.49% |
| 2021 | 62.68% |
| 2022 | 63.19% |
| 2023 | 62.13% |
| 2024 | 61.13% |
| 2025 | 60.25% |
The catch
How Much Revenue Goes Straight to Interest Payments? [Interest-to-Total Revenues]
All four run through FY2025 (Chicago's ends in December, the others in June). New York also runs its schools and welfare, so its numbers cover much more than the other three.
| Year | Interest to revenue |
|---|---|
| 2003 | 5.23% |
| 2004 | 5.99% |
| 2005 | 5.38% |
| 2006 | 5.57% |
| 2007 | 5.51% |
| 2008 | 5.41% |
| 2009 | 5.78% |
| 2010 | 5.75% |
| 2011 | 6.29% |
| 2012 | 6.06% |
| 2013 | 6.11% |
| 2014 | 7.12% |
| 2015 | 9.63% |
| 2016 | 5.27% |
| 2017 | 7.47% |
| 2018 | 5.91% |
| 2019 | 5.73% |
| 2020 | 5.53% |
| 2021 | 5.55% |
| 2022 | 4.17% |
| 2023 | 3.78% |
| 2024 | 3.65% |
| 2025 | 3.40% |
Look closer
Vulnerability
How dependent is Chicago on outside help?
How Much Money Comes from State and Federal Government? [Government Transfers-to-Total Revenue]
All four run through FY2025. New York sits high for a reason: it runs the schools and welfare, which state and federal money largely pays for. Chicago, LA and Houston run neither.
| Year | Government transfers to revenue |
|---|---|
| 2003 | 19.07% |
| 2004 | 17.59% |
| 2005 | 16.06% |
| 2006 | 16.13% |
| 2007 | 14.53% |
| 2008 | 14.02% |
| 2009 | 14.03% |
| 2010 | 14.73% |
| 2011 | 17.61% |
| 2012 | 13.23% |
| 2013 | 13.19% |
| 2014 | 10.01% |
| 2015 | 9.30% |
| 2016 | 9.07% |
| 2017 | 8.26% |
| 2018 | 7.96% |
| 2019 | 7.03% |
| 2020 | 13.01% |
| 2021 | 8.77% |
| 2022 | 8.63% |
| 2023 | 8.09% |
| 2024 | 8.76% |
| 2025 | 7.12% |
Don't count on it
The money comes in.
The promises keep piling up.
Chicago doesn't have to miss a bond payment to "default" on its residents. Deferred maintenance, underfunded pensions, and rising debt are already shaping what the city can and can't do for you.
Send these charts to your alderperson (look yours up by address, or browse the full City Council list) and ask:
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Pensions
When will Chicago pay its full annual pension bill instead of 85% of it?
Actuaries set an amount owed each year to keep the funds on track. Chicago paid 27% of it in 2016 and 85% in 2025. The rest keeps compounding into the $36.4 billion gap, and the yearly bill rises again this decade.
-
Capital projects
Will every Lake Shore Drive option get a full lifecycle cost, plus what it does for safety, transit access and the tax base?
The 1930s roadbed has deteriorated to the point that CDOT and IDOT say full reconstruction is needed, so doing nothing is not an option. After 1,800 comments the agencies dropped the eight-lane concept priced at $3.4 billion, and CMAP adopts updated plan language in October 2026. That $3.4 billion was a construction figure, not a lifecycle cost.
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Borrowing
Before the next bond issue, can you show which projects pay for themselves?
The city already owes 4.4 times what it collects each year, and FY2026 authorized about $1.8 billion more.
-
A “balanced” budget
How much of the next budget rests on one-time money?
FY2026 was called balanced on a record $1.01 billion TIF surplus plus about $450 million of borrowing for operating costs. Neither repeats.
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Outside money
If Springfield and Washington don’t come through, what’s the local plan?
City grant revenue is down to about 7% of what Chicago collects. And at the CTA, a separate agency, $2 billion in approved Red Line funding sat frozen for five months and was released only after a lawsuit.
Tell them you want a budget built on Strong Towns principles: maintain what we have, and stop passing the bill to the next generation.
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About this data
Source: Chicago's Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports (ACFR), 2003-2025. Figures come from the government-wide statements for the primary government (governmental plus business-type activities). Figures are charted in nominal dollars. Six of the seven indicators are ratios, so inflation cancels out of them; only net financial position is an absolute dollar figure, and the real-terms comparison quoted for it uses annual average CPI-U (184.0 in 2003 against 321.9 for 2025, a partial-year average because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations).
Per resident: The net financial position chart can be switched to a per-resident view, which divides each year's figure by that city's population for that year. This is the only chart where city size distorts the comparison; the other six are ratios and are already size-neutral. Two caveats. First, the 2020 figures are decennial census counts while the surrounding years are inter-censal estimates, which puts a small step in the 2020 point, most visible for New York. Second, the 2024 population figures are approximate. Neither moves any line by more than a few percent, and neither changes a trend. The 2025 populations are the Census Bureau's estimates for July 1, 2025 (Chicago 2,731,585; New York City 8,584,629; Los Angeles 3,869,089; Houston 2,397,315).
What “Chicago” means here: Every figure on this page covers the City of Chicago only. Chicago Public Schools, the Chicago Transit Authority, the Park District, the Housing Authority and City Colleges are legally separate governments. The ACFR calls them “related organizations” and excludes them, because the city appoints board members but has no financial accountability for them. Their debts and pension gaps are real and fall on the same taxpayers, but none of them appear in any number here, so the totals on this page understate what a Chicago resident is collectively on the hook for. The city’s own reporting entity does include the Chicago Public Library and the Sales Tax Securitization Corporation.
Are these cities comparable? Partly, and it depends on the chart. Chicago, Los Angeles and Houston are close structural peers: none runs a school district or a county welfare system, and each owns large utilities or airports. New York is the outlier — its city government runs the public schools and the social-services system, which with health and CUNY are about 56% of its budget, and it owns almost no enterprises. Recomputing Chicago on New York’s reporting basis moves net-debt-to-revenue by only about 2%, but moves assets-to-liabilities and interest-to-revenue by roughly a third. On government transfers that basis difference explains just 1.6 points of the 18.5-point gap between the two cities; the rest is simply that New York runs schools and Chicago does not. Treat net-debt-to-revenue as the most robust comparison and government transfers as the least.
Comparison cities: New York City, Los Angeles, and Houston are drawn from their respective ACFRs and all run through fiscal year 2025. Fiscal years are not aligned: Chicago closes December 31 and the other three close June 30, so a year label does not cover the same twelve months in every city, and the comparison cities' FY2025 ends six months before Chicago's. Los Angeles is charted from 2012, the earliest year in our source data for that city. One further wrinkle: the Chicago, Los Angeles and Houston series measure the total primary government, while the New York City series measures governmental activities only, which is how that city presents its headline figures. Each city's series is internally consistent over time, which is what the trend lines depend on, but levels are not strictly like-for-like across cities.
Pensions: Covers the city's four funds (Municipal, Police, Fire, Laborers). The funded ratio and the $36.4 billion gap are the primary government's total pension liability and net pension liability as reported in the FY2025 ACFR, measured December 31, 2025. Other published figures may differ slightly depending on measurement date and whether other post-employment benefits are included. The sharp shifts around 2015 are due to GASB 68, a reporting change. The obligations already existed; only the reporting was new. Figures represent long-term actuarial obligations, not cash due today.
Infrastructure: Depreciation-based metrics are accounting estimates, not physical condition assessments. The denominator is the original cost of tangible capital assets and excludes right-of-use lease and subscription assets.
Peer median: Where offered, this is the middle value among New York City, Los Angeles, and Houston for each year, using whichever of the three reported that year. It is a description of what three other large cities happen to look like, not a target or a standard. It is not offered on the net financial position chart, where comparing raw dollar totals across cities of very different size would mislead.
Accessibility: Each chart is paired with an equivalent data table for screen readers. If the charting library fails to load, the page says so and points to the source data rather than showing empty boxes.
This page is intended to inform public discussion, not to provide financial advice. Spot an error? Let us know.
Last updated August 2026 · Reflects the FY2025 ACFR